I don't know whether to laugh or cry when our
politicians
and bureaucrats make the following statements, 'We need more
refineries',
'We need more natural gas pipelines', 'We need more electric power
transmission
lines'. Such simple solutions to very complex problems are sure to
fail.
The only statement they got right, but for the wrong reason is, 'We do
need more natural gas pipelines' because we should be using natural gas
instead of oil where ever possible.
Change each statement into a question 'Why don't
we have more... The first response to all three is, 'Not in my
backyard'.
If they are going to be built, they must be in someone's back yard. Who
is going to volunteer. The second response is 'Will there be enough
electricity,
natural gas, or crude oil to justify building them. The third response
is 'Will there be a market for the products.'
During the last energy crisis, the electric utility
industry learned that it was profitable not to build more electric
power
plants. They could earn more money when they encouraged their customers
to conserve electricity and their customers saved money by doing so.
The
same is true for natural gas and oil industries as well. Also,
following
the previous energy crisis, the oil industry learned that we can use
less
oil, our oil consumption dropped from 20 million barrels of oil per day
to 17 million barrels of oil per day as we reduced the weight of our
cars.
We don't need eight miles to the gallon vehicles, so why should the oil
industry build more refineries, when the industry knows we could
conserve
and make additional refineries unnecessary and a waste of money.
We are right back where
we started, we are consuming 20 million barrels a day of crude oil
because
we went back to being energy hogs. This is the fourth time we have gone
through large price increases in crude oil, can't we learn. We don't
need
two ton plus vehicles to transport one person to any destination. We
don't
need four wheel drive vehicles on super highways. We don't need a pick
up truck to transport a bag of groceries. We don't need eight hundred
plus
square feet of living space per person in a home, we don't need to air
condition an entire house when we only use about three rooms, and we
certainly
don't need to air condition an empty building.
When we build such large homes, does anyone ask,
'Where are we going to get the energy in thirty years to operate these
large homes?' Oh, you are not going to live in them that long! Well who
is going to buy them if they can't get the energy to operate them?
Does anyone have any idea how many people would
go hungry if any large city went without electricity for more than
three
days? We don't have an energy crisis, we have a knowledge crisis.
What would you call people who are intelligent and
have the data, but don't analyze it or they analyze it and their
response
is incongruent with the result of the analysis?
A politician's attention span last only until the
next opinion poll, industry's attention span is as long as the next
earnings
report, and a bureaucrat must be politically correct, so who is going
to
educate the public?
As the world population increases and everyone uses
more energy, we will not have enough energy for everyone, we will need
to switch to alternative energy sources. We can't do that in a few
years.
We need at least ten years, maybe twenty, to build the new
infrastructure.
We must conserve our fossil fuels now, we must deplete our fossil fuels
gradually so we have time to phase in alternative fuels so our economy
will not crash while we wait for the new infrastructure to be built.
I don't want our economy to crash, but if we don't
start using our brains we will have a depression that will make the
1930
depression look like a Sunday school picnic.
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We have witnessed four large increases in the price of
oil. The first was caused by a panic among the leaders of Saudi Arabia
to a report about the correlation between the amount of new oil
discovered
and the amount of drill pipe required to find it. The trend indicated
that
no new cheap oil would be found in the near future and they were giving
their oil away. For many years following World War Two the price
of Arabian oil never went above $1.25 a barrel. The second was caused
by
closing of the Suez Cannel during the middle east conflict. The third
was
an attempt by OPEC to get their members to stick to their production
quotas
because all of the OPEC countries had over spent on social
programs
and as their populations grew their oil income fell short of their
expenditures.
The fourth was the result of OPEC actually doing what they said they
would
do on oil production.
Each time there was a public out cry, "They can't
do that to us; The government should do something; The oil companies
are
price gouging us." If I hadn't been laughing I would have cried at the
sheer stupidity. Shortly after the last price increase a friend of ours
became angry when I said what I though about the situation. She claimed
that it was all a government conspiracy to raise oil prices. I almost
said,
"Cheap oil is not one of the Ten Commandments."
Most people have no concept of the excellent job
our industries and distribution companies do for us. Also, most people
have no concept of how vulnerable we are to any disruption in our
distribution
system. Stop and think, don't you marvel at the tons of food, fuel, and
supplies that arrive on time every day all over our country at very low
prices. Food goes from the farm to our tables in less than two days.
Gas
and electricity are at our finger tips. Gasoline less than an hour away
and home heating oil and propane can be delivered the same day.
Clothing
and other articles are available at the nearest store. True, most of
the
efficiency is driven by economics, but it is still a marvel.
Back to oil, do you realize how much oil we use
every day, almost 20 million barrels, that's 840 million gallons. The
number
is staggering. To put it in more personal terms, we consume 3 gallons
oil
every day for every person in our country. Remember, we don't consume
every
gallon personally. Our distribution system and industries must use oil
to deliver all the goods and services we expect each day, we must count
the oil used by all of our trucks, trains, planes, cabs, etc. in our
consumption
total.
Do you have any idea how much oil is in inventory
and how much it costs to hold it in inventory? A little over one week
of
consumption is in inventory and at $25 a barrel and at six per cent
interest
the cost is over $500,000 a day. To that the cost of all the
infrastructure
must be included, the capital cost of all the terminals, storage tanks,
refineries, service stations, and other buildings used to carry out the
industry operations, plus the cost of all the people involved. Now we
are
talking millions of dollars a day and some people are complaining about
$2 a gallon gasoline!
Another thing, do you know how long it takes for
a barrel of crude oil to go from the well to your gasoline tank? For
oil
produced in the U.S., a little over three days. For oil produced
outside
of the U.S. shipping time must be added. Oil from Canada, Mexico, and
Venezuela
needs a day to about a week, from the Persian Gulf about three weeks.
Now consider this, each of the large ships hold
about 2 million barrels of crude oil and because we produce less than 8
million barrels of oil a day of our own oil, we must import six large
ships
of oil every day. Now if there is a disruption in the supply of oil
from
any one of our sources can you imagine what effect it would have on the
supply of oil available and the price you would have to pay because of
that disruption. Also consider changes in demand caused by price
changes.
Here is an example, the sharp price rise this spring
caused people to drive less and by June the price of gasoline began to
decline. Why? Well, if six large ships are coming into port every day
that
two million barrels has to go some where. If demand changes faster than
the delivery time of the large ships, what happens to the supply. When
demand dropped by six per cent in June, the ships from the Persian Gulf
were already on their way and when they arrived, the supply of gasoline
exceed demand by 2 million barrels, so the price went down so people
would
use more gasoline so the oil industry had room in storage for the next
ship. Can you imagine what would happen to the price of gasoline if
inventories
were low and one of the large ships was late?
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Flashing red and white lights brought my thoughts
back to where they should have been. A quick glance at the speedometer
told me the reason for the lights. I'm a very competitive person, I
hate
to lose. The thought of losing money to a speeding ticket galled me. I
slowed, put on the brakes, pulled on to the shoulder of the highway,
and
waited.
My attention turned to the actions of the officer.
I looked into my mirrors, but I couldn't see him, soon a bright
flashlight
beam scanned the interior of my car. In this era of drugs and road
rage,
the reason for all the bright lights was obvious, an officer needs all
the advantages possible. An officer shot during a routine traffic stop
is a frequent story on the nightly news. Occasionally a driver is shot
by mistake when the officer misunderstands the drivers intentions.
"May I see your drivers license." I couldn't
remember
which pocket, I tapped first one then another until I found my wallet.
I handed him my license, he looked at it. "Were you paying attention to
your driving?"
"No." I was returning from my weekly duplicate
bridge
game, my partner made four errors during the session and I was
reviewing
each hand to make sure I had not made any mistakes and I did, I made
one
mistake, I violated a bridge maxim, I let my partner make a mistake. I
could have played my cards in a different order, if I had done so my
partner
would not have had the opportunity to make a mistake and we would have
come in first, instead I gave him a chance to make a mistake and he did
and we came in second.
"Do you have any violations on your record?"
"Not to my knowledge."
"One moment please." The officer returned to his
vehicle and after short time returned, "I'm going to let you go with a
warning this time, be sure to pay attention from now on." He returned
my
license.
"Thank you," and he left. The officer was courteous
and efficient as usual, I was back on the road in less than three
minutes.
I was mad at myself, I had made the same mistake twice in the same
night.
Where I live it would be very unlikely that an
officer
would misunderstand my intentions and shoot me, but that is not the
point.
The police are our partners, they try to protect us from ourselves. We
should NEVER give them the chance to make a mistake no matter how small
that chance is because the results could be a lot worse than second
place,
it could be disastrous. Now I have another reason to obey our laws,
NEVER
GIVE YOUR PARTNER A CHANCE TO MAKE A MISTAKE.
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content
RICHARDS RESPONSE to prayer in school would add virtue
and
value to our students
Prayer cannot create virtue or value by itself and if prayer is not a part of a persons value system, a prayer by any other person is meaningless. Prayer never solved a problem, prayer may allow an individual to attain the proper state of mind to define and solve a problem, but prayer never solved a problem. This type of error contributes to such places as Israel, Ireland, etc. Each side praying that they live long enough to kill their enemies, is that type of prayer virtue or value?
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If we are to eliminate terrorism, we must
eliminate
the errors that allow terrorism to occur. One error is the fallacy of
justification.
Some religious, philosophical, or political fundamentalists, such as
the
Arab, Jew, Irish, pro life, etc. use their interpretation of their
religion,
philosophy, or politics to justify their actions. This is a very major
fallacy, our actions should justify our religion, philosophy, or
politics
not the other way around.
We will have terrorism until this error is
eliminated,
a very difficult task, the United States, for example, has been
perpetuating
the fallacy since 1776 and the Jews for over 3500 years. If you use
your
religion, philosophy, or politics to justify your actions you are a
hypocrite,
you are not true to yourself, you are externalizing your value and how
could killing some one justify your religion, philosophy, or politics?
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Most people do not understand, there is not a
conflict
between science and religion because science knows it can not answer
all
questions and science has a mechanism for change. In fact, science
divides
questions into three groups. Those it can answer, those it can never
answer,
and those that it may be able to answer but cannot do so without
spending
an unreasonable amount of resources. Questions such as, 'Does man have
a soul?', 'Is there a God?', etc., science does not even attempt to
answer
because science knows it can not.
There is a conflict between religion and science
because most religions attempt to answer all questions and most
religions
do not have a mechanism for change except for minor procedural items.
Most
of the time the only way to effect a change in a religion is to create
a new religion and generally creating great animosity. Because of these
defects I must conclude that all religions were developed by man not
God
and therefore we will never have a one true religion.
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YOU CAN
ACCEPT EVOLUTION AND KEEP YOUR CHRISTIAN FAITH
011015
Notice, I used the word accept and not believe.
Science
does not believe a scientific theory or law, science accepts them if
they
fit the data, if they don't they are rejected. A scientific theory or
law
must also meet two additional criteria, they must be repeatable and
they
must predict. I don't know of any religion that meets the last two
criteria.
For me, religion must restrict itself to answering the questions that
science
knows it cannot answer and creation science is a sham.
Now, let me tell you how the title of this comment
came about for me. I cannot explain why the thoughts came as they did
all
I can do is retell them as they happened. Each comma and period in the
material below was followed by a pause in my thinking, some times for
several
minutes.
One day I was sitting at the beach reflecting on
the latest blow up in Israel. All I could do was shake my head at the
stupidity,
I could not believe what the Jews or the Palestinians were saying. I
did
not believe either side now, I did not believe either side in the
eighties,
or the seventies, or the sixties, or the fifties, or in 1947 when I
studied
the creation of Israel by the United Nations in high school.
If I didn't believe the Jews then why should I
believe
the Jews at any time, was their word like a fine wine, does it get
better
with time. NO! Then why should I believe what they wrote over 2000
years
ago?
'Seek the truth and the truth will set you free.'
'In God we trust.' I stopped attending Sunday school at age twelve
because
the little old ladies were not teaching what the Bible said, they were
teaching me their belief, I couldn't even call it their interpretation
of the Bible, they were not telling me the truth and I didn't go to
church
again until I was married.
Now the same thing was happening again and as far
as I was concerned neither side was telling the truth. When I replaced
the word 'believe' with 'trust them to tell the truth' in my above
thought
process the whole basis for a literal interpretation of the Bible or of
any religion, for that matter, came crashing down.
You can accept evolution and keep your Christian
faith if you are willing to give up a literal interpretation of the
Bible.
All evolution is doing is explaining what happened between the time God
spit in the dust and creation of man.
Now the parable 'Foxes have holes' took on a new
meaning, one that had been discussed in our adult Sunday school group
many
times. Jesus was not talking about a place to rest our heads. He was
talking
about our ability to determine the truth. Together with my knowledge of
logic, Godel's theorem, the uncertainty principle, the theory of
relativity,
quantum mechanics, etc., I knew that we can never know anything for
certain.
Think of it this way, Truth is at the top of a
circle
and ignorance is at the bottom, on one side place belief with faith
above
it and on the other side place think with knowledge above it. From
ignorance
we can approach Truth from two different directions but we can never
reach
it because of our inherent limitations. It also means we can never mix
science and religion when we try to approach Truth. They must forever
remain
on their separate paths in our thinking.
'The New has come, the old has passed away' and
'No one can live by the letter of the law, we must live by the Spirit
of
the law' also took on new meaning. When religion conflicts with science
we must change our beliefs and or faith because the conflict means that
our belief and or faith was moving away from the spirit and toward the
letter and no one but God can know the letter.
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content
I become very perturbed when a web site causes my
old communicator to abort because it could not handle the bells,
whistles,
or glitz used by the web site. I have been working with computers since
1964, I wrote my first program in 1967 and I have learned that the
value
of data produced by a system is inversely proportional to the amount of
bells, whistles, and glitz used to present the data.
The bells, whistles, and glitz should aid in the
rapid, easy, and accurate conversion of data to information and if they
don't do that, they are pure crap (return to 'Thoughts' and read 'Data
and Information are they Synonyms' and 'Data processing'). If I wanted
to work with crap I would clean out a dairy barn and put it on my
garden,
that way it would be of some use. I certainly don't want to work with
crap
on my computer, TV is about all I can stand.
When bells, whistles, and glitz are used to an
extreme
the output is devoid of content and has an insidious side effect, the
uneducated
assume the bells, whistles, and glitz are the content. Scientists have
been decrying the dumbing down of America for decades and the misuse of
bells, whistles, and glitz are contributing to this result. The same
criticism
can be made of the advertising, the marketing, the media, and the
entertainment
industries.
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Sadly, too many people are not aware of the
insidious and dangerous side effects of political, philosophical,
and religious stories. When ever we try to teach anyone anything, even
in jest, words are very imperfect vessels to convey our thoughts. Also
when we try to teach someone anything we are imperfect in our ability
to
teach and to predict what some one will learn from anything we try to
teach
them because we are to focused, to narrow in our view, and to limited.
Most of the time the other person will learn much more than we intended
and many times not what we intended at all.
For example, the Bible can be divided into four
parts, the old testament into three: God to us, God with us, God for
us,
and the new testament is God in us. An ancient Hebrew would be aghast
at
the cracked pot story. How could anyone with a flaw even approach God,
they would have to be purified, only the unblemished could go before
God.
This is the trap so many of the born again
Christians
fall into, the Bible is without blemish; therefore the Bible is with
out
error and unchanging and they refuse to admit or choose to deny that
the
late writers of the Bible are 180 degrees out of phase with the
beginning
writers, alcohol for example, there many others. The Catholic Church
made
the same mistake only they converted the unblemished theme into
infallibility.
Now, the Christian should be shocked by the
implication
of the cracked pot story that God 'uses' people to accomplish God's
goal.
This same error is committed through out the entire Bible, especially
Pilate
and Judas. This subtle and I would hope unintended meaning is why so
many
young people reject the Bible, most don't even know why they reject the
Bible because they learned the unintended meaning subconsciously and
they
are completely unaware of their objection. They object to the
unfairness
of the unintended meaning. Young people have a very strong sense of
fairness,
they have not lived long enough to know that the world is not fair,
never
has been and never will be.
These subtle themes are very dangerous because they
reduce our objectivity, increase our bias, and worst of all increase
our
prejudice. Look at our country, we object to OPEC decreasing the amount
of oil we consume and increasing the price we pay and object to the
rest
of the world saying that we should reduce our CO2 emissions, how dare
they,
we have the God given right to consume and pollute as much as we want
after
all we are the 'choose people', we're number one. This is a subtle
theme
from our heritage. We have many more and very few people are aware of
them.
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We ignore the GIFT, the gift of the three
greatest
miracles because we take them for granted. We have studied the first
two
(physics, biology, chemistry, etc.), but not the third even though we
use
it every day. Let me explain.
Look around, what do you see? You see something;
the sky, the earth, the trees, the bushes, the grass, the man made
objects,
etc. You see the greatest miracle of them all every time you open your
eyes or use any of your senses, you sense SOMETHING instead of NOTHING.
Our senses respond to a very minute number of bits,
we ignore the vast bulk of the material resources all around us all the
time and in turn we ignore the message of the bits to which we do
respond
because they have always been there, they are not novel, we have sensed
them before.
We take the second greatest miracle for granted
also, life. How can we take life for granted. Don't you ever pinch
yourself
and wonder? How can you look around and not get excited and jump up and
down with joy?
Non material resources, experiences, love, thoughts,
ideas, solutions, knowledge, information, data, etc., are the third
greatest
miracle.
Let me use seven words to describe the third greatest
miracle, four resources and three activities. The resources are: bit,
data,
information, and knowledge. The activities are: assignment,
intelligence,
and wisdom. I'm quite sure you are familiar with five of the words and
I'm equally sure you are not familiar with two of the words.
A bit is any sign, signal, symbol, etc., the
smallest
quantity of a resource that can be recognized by a system, it is one
unique
attribute of a resource. For our eyes, one photon can be a bit, for our
nose and tongue, the smallest number of molecules, for our ears, the
smallest
number of vibrations in the air, that will cause a nerve signal to be
sent
to the brain. Also, our alphabet, punctuation marks, music, art, etc.,
can be a bits.
Assignment places a value on one or more bits to
represent something else. For example, to the letters C A T, we assign
the value cat, to the letters D O G, we assign the value dog. Why do I
use the word assignment instead of the word definition. Because the
word
assignment is a broader, more general term. Most of the data we create
is non verbal and obviously I can't describe them, but I can describe
some
data elements that are in between verbal and non verbal. For example,
the
faucet, OFF, we assign the value of no water, ON, we assign the value
water.
The same is true of the light switch, ON, means light, OFF, means dark.
When we assign a value to one or more bits we create data.
Information is created by the intelligence activity
when it analyzes three or more data elements containing the minimum
dimension
for information, subject, verb, object equivalent data.
Knowledge is created by the wisdom activity when
it analyzes information.
I hope you noticed data is very distinct from
information.
Data is not information and information is not data. They are NOT
synonyms.
An incident with a coworker convinced me the
distinction
between data and information was more than an intellectual conclusion.
By choice, I use a red pencil to mark errors because the red contrasts
very well with the black and white of the page preventing uncorrected
errors.
But my coworker missed my red circle around an error I found in his
report
and he distributed his report with a major error, much to his
embarrassment.
When I saw the uncorrected error, I went to him to find out why he had
missed my circled mistake on his rough draft. He exclaimed, "I can't
see
that, I'm color blind, I can't see red! It appears black, I can't see
the
contrast you can!"
Obviously, his bits were not the same as mine so
his data and information could never be the same as mine, but it is
also
true for people with normal vision. Our eyes can only detect three
wavelengths
of light yet our brains 'see' all colors. We can point to a color
chart,
the bits, and we can assign an agreed value, a name, to each color
creating
data, but the color on the chart is not the information the brain
'sees'.
The brain creates information from data, it cannot 'see' the color on
the
chart, it only 'sees' the nerve signals, the data from the eyes
corresponding
to the intensity of the three wavelengths of light, the bits the eyes
can
detect. The color, the information, the brain 'sees', is not the bits
the
eyes saw. The color, the information, my brain 'sees', is not the same
as the color your brain 'sees'.
If you doubt this, ask anyone who has replaced a
fender on a car how many people agree that it matches or watch two
women
trying to match the color of a skirt and blouse.
Oh, how much we take for granted.
A brain can choose one or more bits and assign a
value based on experience and create data. If the same brain has an
intelligence
activity it can create information from the data and if it has a wisdom
activity as well, it can create knowledge from the information,
KNOWLEDGE
of the GIFT of the three greatest miracles.
I have a conjecture as to why we empathize with
anyone facing a life threatening event. First, we don't want it to
happen
to us and second, we would want someone to help us, but neither is the
main point. The main point is we are subconsciously aware of the GIFT
and
we don't want anyone to lose the GIFT.
A man once said, 'If the will to live was not innate
it would be the worst of all possible conclusions'. I hope you will
agree
with me that because of the GIFT it should be replaced with, 'If the
will
to live was not innate, it would be the best of all possible
conclusions.'
Now do you realize what we have and why life and
living systems were created? Only a living system with the assignment,
intelligence, and wisdom activities can KNOW.
We participate in the GIFT of the three greatest
miracles, we are SOMETHING not nothing, we are ALIVE, and our brains
can
choose one or more bits, assign a value based on experience, can
analyze
data, (subject verb object equivalent data, the minimum dimensions of
information)
and create information, can analyze the information and create
KNOWLEDGE,
knowledge of the GIFT, knowledge of the three greatest miracles.
Now you are consciously aware of the GIFT of the
three greatest miracles, now you are aware of the power we have, use it
wisely.
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Until more people understand the difference
between
data, information, and knowledge, the science Vs Religion debate will
continue.
Science is not against religion, science by its very nature is against
ignorance, so when a religion is stupid, the people involved will feel
threaten by science.
Science is neutral on religion because science can
not determine the validity of the God question. Science can neither
prove
nor disprove such statements as 'there is a God', 'man has a soul',
etc.
Such statements have 'chosen' validity and are true only in a given
value
system. In other words, we can choose a system in which they are true.
Some statements are 'fixed truth', some are
'variable
truth', and some are 'chosen truth'. For example, 'we must eat' is a
fixed
truth, it is fixed by our biological system as being true. 'I am
hungry'
is a variable truth, it is true when we need more energy and false when
we do not. 'I ate bread and butter' is a chosen truth, it is true if I
did eat bread and butter and false if I didn't, I choose to or not.
The scientist must always remember that an atheist
position is no more tenable than a religious position, neither can be
proved
true or false.
Some religious people need to learn that their truth
is chosen (I wish I knew how to teach them), it is only true in their
value
system (their belief system) and therefore violates our constitution to
teach it in our public schools and all laws allowing creation science
to
be taught should be repealed. Most people think of religion as
being
'good' and therefore ignore the down side of religion. (Return to
'Thoughts'
and read 'Religion')
Some statements can be proved to be true and some
statements can be proved to be false and some statements can not be
proved
either true or false and the ability to know the difference is the mark
of a educated person, and that's what our students should be taught.
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I have had several such experiences in my life. I
have divided them into three groups. The first group I tend to discount
because the experience occurred after seeing the object or place. The
second
group I was able to describe the object or place prior to seeing them.
The third group occurred during a dream or shortly thereafter. These
last
two groups I give full value. Unfortunately, I can’t remember all of
them.
Most of my experiences in the first group occurred
shortly after I bought my first car, from sixteen to twenty one, and
usually
while I was driving. I would see an object or landscape and I would
swear
I had seen it before, but it was the first time I had ever been there.
The second and third group occurred all through my life, but the
second,
mostly during my younger years.
The second group was the same as the first group,
but I was able to describe the object or landscape before I saw them.
One
such experience shook me. I can’t remember the place or time, but I do
remember it. My brother and I and two friends were driving on a dirt
road
near lake Michigan. Sand dunes and trees blocked our view of the lake.
As I drove into a small clearing I pulled over and parked the car and
said,
“Over those dunes on our right is a small creek.” My brother responded,
“How do you know, you’ve never been here before?”
“Go over the saddle between those two dunes and
see for yourself.”
“OK, lets go.”
The others got out of the car faster than I did
and were half way up when I said, “If you cross the creek near the
trees
you will find stepping stones, green, reddish, and blue. The green ones
are covered with alga, they are slippery so don’t step on them, but the
reddish and blue stones are OK because they are dry. The reddish stones
are in a diamond pattern with the blue stones around them.”
I was disturbed and couldn’t believe what I was
saying and stood still for a while. I could picture the scene I was
about
to see. When I reached the top of the saddle the others were running up
and down the bank on the other side of the creek, exploring. The scene
matched my earlier picture.
We explored the creek to a small swamp, not in my
vision, and explored down to the lake and the beach on both sides until
we were hungry. We returned to the car and drove to find a place to
eat.
The others never said a word about my vision then or later, but it was
a major event for me, one I can still remember, at least most of it.
Many years later I tried to find the same spot,
but I couldn’t. The old road had been abandoned, a new asphalt road
built
further from the lake, the swamp drained, and houses covered the dunes
between the trees, I couldn’t recognize it.
I had three other major deja vu experiences, all
of the third group. The first occurred when my sister’s first child,
she
had four, died. Mickey was born with a heart defect, if he had lived
until
he was five the doctors were going to do heart surgery, he never made
it.
I had talked with my sister several times over the
next several years after Mickey was born, but Mickey’s heart condition
was never mentioned. One night I awoke from a dream, I couldn’t
remember
the dream. As I lay trying to remember the dream, I bolt upright,
“Mickey’s
in God’s hands.” My sister called the next morning, Mickey died
silently
during the night without any prior warning symptoms. Again, I was
disturbed.
The second came many years later, by then my deja
vu experiences didn’t disturb me. My sister and her husband were
visiting
his old homestead. She had told me they would stop and visit on their
return.
During their visit, she called and told me, “We have an emergency and
have
to return home immediately.” That’s all she said and hung up.
Obviously,
she was disturbed.
That night I had another dream which I couldn’t
remember and again as I lay there trying to remember the dream I bolt
upright
and said, “Roxie’s in God’s hands.” My sister called the following
evening
and told me the rest of the story. Roxie won her first bout with
leukemia
but not the second, two years later, at age thirty.
The third came several months later. This time I
had a recurring dream every night for more than a month. I was riding
with
my brother in his convertible on a mountain road. The switch backs were
hairpin curves and steep. With each switch back the curves became
tighter
and steeper until the car turned to the right and flipped over and we
fell
through empty space. At this point I woke up.
Nothing happened when the dream stopped so I didn’t
think very much about it, but I still wondered what it meant and why it
had recurred so often.
About six weeks later our daughter’s husband, John,
was killed in airplane accident. My wife and I stayed with her
after
the funeral and went to the inquest with her.
When an eye witness told his story during the
inquest
the dream returned as he spoke. John had gone flying with his brother
in
a modified racing plane. The eye witness saw them take off, heard the
engine
sputter, saw the plane go into a steep stall, turn right, and fall
straight
down in a slow spin. John’s brother broke the spin and almost recovered
from the stall dive before they crashed, another five hundred feet of
elevation
and they would have landed safely.
I have never been able to answer the question,
what was this dream trying to tell me? Many people have asked this
question.
I seldom dream or at least I don’t remember dreaming, maybe that’s why
I place so much emphasis on the dreams I can remember.
The first dream I can remember occurred during a
tonsillectomy at age six. The doctors used ether and while I was under
a five point star rotated around its center, its three line perimeter
was
blazing white light everything else was black. Why a dream, why a star,
for a six year old?
I have had several minor deja vu experiences since
John’s death, but not a major one. Over the years I have heard other
people
tell similar stories so I know I’m not alone and they like me came to
the
same conclusion, God was trying to communicate with us. I can come to
no
other conclusion.
I’m well aware of how easy it is to draw the wrong
conclusion from limited data sets. Especially conclusions drawn using
the
lowest order discernate. A discernate is a member of a hierarchical set
of the following operators: counting, measuring, comparing, observing,
and experiencing. For some questions, such as, the God question, the
only
discernate we can use is experience.
For me the God question was answered early in life
and I have never been able to determine which came first my answer to
the
God question or my adoption of the systems approach to thinking or a
melding
of both through time.
Because most of our thinking is at the non verbal
level and we have great difficulty translating our non verbal thoughts
into verbal format our accuracy is low; therefore we can never know for
certain what God is trying to communicate to us.
We chose the bits, we assign the value and create
data, and we create the information. This is why I am a theist, but
anti
religion. Every religion I have studied is certain. From my experiences
and education, i.e., the uncertainty principle, Godel’s theorem,
relativity,
quantum mechanics, logical semantics, etc., we can know very little for
certain; therefore I must reject all religions.
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Some of the values we accept are values forced
upon
us by well meaning people. They usually call it religious education
when
it is really religious indoctrination, I call it brainwashing. Such
values,
forced upon young children, are very difficult to change. Does the
child
really have freedom of choice after such indoctrination?
My parents ignored my religious education and I’m
thankful because that allowed me to choose my own faith. From what I
have
observed that is the best thing a parent can do for their children.
Many fallacies would disappear if religious
education
was not allowed until after high school graduation. Children would be
in
a better position to judge for themselves. Religious education by its
nature
is very biased. Alternatives are never mentioned and errors are never
disclosed
because the religion is always the one true religion and it contains no
errors.
In my younger years I studied many religions and
I never found any that did not contain many errors and never did any
religion
offer any alternative to its point of view. If the younger generation
is
not allowed to challenge the older generations point of view, except
superficially,
the errors of the older generation will be perpetuated forever.
Most people think of religion as being ‘good’ and
therefore ignore the down side of religion, a topic I have discussed
many
times.
Since religion has been the major impediment to
the educational development for centuries, I can not support even the
most
trivial possible perpetuation of this impediment. Since most of the
alternatives
to public schools are parochial and the children would receive a
religious
education by default, I can not support school vouchers.
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Much has been written about 911 and the Bush-bin
Laden connection, but why has the outcry been mostly limited to the
victims
of 911. Why hasn’t there been a national outcry?
Because our nation is an immature, self righteous
energy hog. It’s our God-given right to consume as much energy as we
want.
Didn’t you know, it’s one of the ten commandments that we have cheap
oil.
The self righteous will never admit they made a
mistake. How could they? They are right. By the same token, they will
never
change. Why should they? Their way is the only way.
The immature follow the crowd, never think for
themselves;
therefore they never gather data, analyze it, make an evaluation, or
decide
a change is necessary. Why should they? The majority is always right.
How can anyone criticize our president he
exemplifies
all of the above attributes, after all he’s one of us.
We are so arrogant. Our way of thinking, our
politics,
our philosophies, and our religions either explicitly or implicitly,
state
that we are the chosen ones, we are privileged.
I was very disappointed with the State of the Union
Speech, it is an example of our arrogance. Conservation was only
mentioned
once and no mention of coming problems.
Until our country matures, the only way we will
change is when a crisis forces us to change -- our history doesn’t
indicate
otherwise or offer much hope. If we don’t get our act together soon,
about
five years, we will crash our economy and it will make ‘29 look like a
Sunday School picnic. I don’t want our economy to collapse because that
would increase the probability that our nation would collapse.
Why five years? WHO recently estimated the world
population at 6.6 billion and it will be greater than 8 billion in five
years. According to my calculations to feed that many people will be
the
first major test of our survivability. Also in five years we will be
going
into a sun spot maximum, major droughts tend to occur in the years
around
a sun spot maximum. Along with global warming if we have a major
drought we will be forced to change our diet plus some other things if
we are to feed all those people. When these changes become apparent, we
will crash our economy because markets are driven by perception.
Markets
worry about what will happen next.
Our country has done little to help the rest of
the world bring our population under control. We don't have much time
and
our resources are limited, so space exploration will have to wait. If
we
don't start soon, it will be too late.
People are unique, but we are not privileged. We
must control our population, our energy use, etc. We must learn and
obey
the laws of the biosphere or all else is an exercise in futility.
The longer I live the more agitated I am becoming.
I want our grand children to have a chance. We must change our way of
thinking
and our life style if we are to survive. Are we ready for what is
coming?
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More than thirty years ago I had a very strange
dream.
In the dream I had a very restless night. I awoke just after sun rise
to
find myself on a very alien planet. The sun looked like a California
orange,
I could look directly at it without any difficulty. The sky was a deep
purple and the sand, gravel, and rocks around me were an even deeper
purple
almost black.
Because of the early morning shadows, I could see
very little detail. I sat up and watched the sun rise, not a cloud nor
any color, just an orange sun slowly rising in a purple sky.
When the shadows shrank, I stood and looked at where
I had slept. I had carved out a bed in a windrow of dark purple sand.
It
was very comfortable because it conformed to the shape of my body.
From the angle of the sun I knew it must be winter
in the northern hemisphere, but I wasn’t cold. I held my hand
perpendicular
to the sun, but I couldn’t feel any heat. I wore a ‘T’ shirt and
shorts,
but my boots were odd. Then I realized that I was wearing a clear
plastic
globe over my head. I looked again at the odd boots and I could see two
plastic tubes attached to the inside of each sole and looped through a
attachment at the top of back of each boot and then to an attachment at
my belt on each side. The tubes joined in the middle of my back and two
tubes went into a filter and then one tube went into the plastic globe
in the back near the top. With each step filtered air was pumped into
the
globe.
With the inspection of my clothing complete, I
looked
at my surroundings. I could see my foot prints in the sand. I climbed a
small hill to my left and from the top I could see my foot prints in
the
sand for as far as I could see.
I had been traveling south in a dry river bed, a
very wide river bed, I continued my journey. The gravel in the river
bed
was mostly pea gravel, but about every mile a mastiff jutted out of the
sand, ten to fifteen feet high, jagged and stark.
The hills to the east were small, consisting of
small rocks and sand, and the land around them was very flat. The hills
to the west were much higher and much steeper, almost an escarpment.
The
strata of the rock layers were easily seen. I could not see beyond
them.
After walking about a hour, I could understand why
I had a restless night. As far as I could see in any direction I could
not see a living thing. No trees, no bushes, no grass, not even an ant.
I had never seen anything so desolate.
Soon, I became hungry. Without thinking I opened
a pouch on my belt, removed and swallowed a small pellet, took a sip
from
my canteen, and waited until my hunger left me. That action spurred me
to take inventory. I had a large number of pellets, but my canteen was
only half full. I had to find water soon.
I continued my journey and absent mindedly looked
at my wrist watch, it obviously had a built in radio. I pushed the talk
button and said, ‘Hello’ and waited. I adjusted the volume on the small
speaker, but the only answer I got was static.
I walked until noon, always looking for any sign
of life or water. I stopped on a small rise, rested on large rock,
swallowed
a pill, dank a sip of water, and continued. I walked until dinner and
repeated
the same routine. An hour before sunset, I stopped, found a sand
windrow,
carved out a bed, lay down, and watched the sun set behind the high
western
hills. As it did so, a small notch in the rocks let one small shaft of
sunlight beamed across the sky. Now I could see the dust. The shaft of
light sparkled with millions of small diamonds, so many that the shaft
became fainter and fainter until it blended in with the rest of the
dark
black sky. No moon and not a star was visible, I could not see a thing
not even the back of my hand.
I repeated this same desolate procedure for six
more days. On the third day, another very large river joined the one I
was traveling, at least it broke the monotony, but only for a moment. I
drank my last sip of water at dinner and didn’t know what to do. I was
almost in panic mode as I went to sleep. I didn’t know how much longer
I could go.
The next morning as I scanned the western hills
looking for a sign of life or water an unusual prominence caught my
eye.
I swore that I had seen it before, but how could I, I had never seen
such
desolation, not even in the ‘Bad Lands’ on earth. I could not get it
out
of my mind, I could not go to sleep, I tossed and turned and finally
dozed
off just before sunrise.
I awoke the next morning when sunlight came
through my bedroom window and from that day on I never forgot the stark
desolation of that dream, I never felt so a lone, before or after.
Now comes the rest of the story. Several days
ago out of the clear blue, I knew where I had seen that prominence
before,
we had stopped at small park on the east side of the Mississippi south
of the Ohio river and looked across the river at it. The dream was
about
how our world would end if we didn’t change our ways.
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Two young evangelists knocked on our door and of
course they wanted to convert me to the one true religion. During the
course
of the discussion, I told them 'How it happened for me' and one of them
said, "Very interesting." As usual I don't think very fast and didn't
respond.
She continued by asking, "Don't you think the men of the Bible are
inspired?"
Again I didn't think fast and didn't respond. She went on about the
truth
of the Bible to which I told her the Bible had too many errors to be
the
word of God. She ended the conversation with, "You must be a
scientist,"
as if being a scientist was a dirty word.
Later, after reflecting on the conversation, I came
up with the following.
How can that be, Jesus said, "Seek the truth and
the truth shall set you free." So how can being a scientist be a dirty
word. Doesn't a scientist seek the truth? Scientists evaluate different
alternatives, have you ever know a religion to evaluate alternatives or
even mention them?
When she said, "How interesting," I should have
said, "The truth is not in you," because she was not interested in what
I said. When she said, "Don't you think the men of the Bible are
inspired?"
I should have responded, "And you and I are not? So why are you placing
so much importance on a document that was written so long ago, don't
you
listen to God?"
We must remember our limits, the finite cannot know
the infinite; therefore we cannot know God's word, we can only know 'of
' the word. We certainly cannot remember the whole truth, so how could
we write the whole truth. All of our documents are limited no matter
who
wrote them, all must be tested. Every thing we hear or read must be
checked.
Our knowledge is limited, we can only 'know' what
we can test. To accept as true what we can test to be false is not
faith,
it's stupidity. God didn't call us to be stupid, God called us to be
faithful.
Because of our limits, to be faithful means we must seek the truth.
Other
wise we fall prey to people who constantly twist the truth to
gain
their own ends.
Another major error often made when preaching about
the Bible, is that it is consistent. The Bible is not very consistent,
let me point out a few trends. If you read the Bible piece meal the
trends
are hard to discern, but if you have a good memory and you read the
Bible
from beginning to end you may discover the following. Most were pointed
out to me, but sacrifice, punishment, and God's activity were not, I
had
come to those conclusion before some else mentioned them to me.
God to us, God for us, God with us, God in us.
Sacrifices
went from humans to large animals to birds to plants to Christ to
nothing.
Punishment went from extreme compared to the crime to 'an eye for an
eye
and a tooth for a tooth' to forgiveness. Male power descends and female
power ascends. What about the consumption of alcohol?
Let me end with the trend that I think is most
important.
In the first books of the Bible God is very active in human affairs and
God's activity in human affairs decreases with each additional book
until
the letters, where God is not active at all. Now why is God's activity
so important to me, because in the first books of the Bible, God's
activity
is centered around telling the Jews to kill sinners and helping the
Jews
kill their enemies. The Bible ends with 'Love your enemies and forgive
sinners'. What a turn around.
God never told any one to kill another.
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How long does it take to gain consensus and
mobilize
a nation, a world?
If the man in the street waits until the meteor
can be seen instead of listening to the astronomers it would be to late
to do any thing.
When I first went hunting and fishing, my brother
and I would be alone in the forest or the river. Later I could see
another
person with every step I took. I stopped hunting and fishing more than
thirty years ago because there were so many people in my favorite
spots.
My father and grand father had made the same complaint, now I
understand.
Many places where we hiked and camped are now
covered
with houses. If the DNR didn't plant fish there would be very few fish
in many rivers and lakes. We have more than enough deer because they
are
living in town where they can't be hunted and are eating flower beds
and
corn from surrounding farm fields.
Two things may protect us from ourselves, AIDS and
the free market. AIDS will decimate Africa and South East Asia over the
coming years, reducing population growth until it is brought under
control.
And while we decry the loss of jobs, the free market may be doing us a
favor. The single most important factor in reducing population is the
increase
in the status of women. As our jobs go over seas, more women will be
working
that ever before outside of the home. As more women work there will be
a tendency for them to have more buying power which in turn will
increase
their status. With an increase in status women tend to have fewer
children.
We made some progress when we started to recycle
and made our cars more efficient. The US population growth is below
even
the most optimist projection of the sixties. We have removed lead from
paint and gasoline. The ozone hole is shrinking. The Alaskan salmon has
made a come back.
Since 1980 we have retrogressed and my calculations
indicate that we are in trouble, if not this coming sun spot maximum
what
will happen at the next one eleven years later when our population will
be over or approaching 20 billion.
I originally made my calculations because I couldn't
believe the numbers that were put forth at the time, there was no
agreement.
My calculations are simple, it's the assumptions that are difficult. I
took the arable land from the encyclopedia multiplied by the corn yield
per acre and by the kcalories per bushel and divided by 2000 kcalories
per person to find the number of people that could be fed (2200 for men
1800 for women). At that time my estimate was 22 billion people eating
corn three meals a day. That's field corn not sweet corn.
Why corn, because it yields the highest calories
per acre except for rice and this assumes we can supply enough water to
grow the corn. Rice will be grown where there is plenty of water and
the
other cereal crops will be grown where there is not enough water for
corn.
All cattle would be gone and most of the hogs, maybe a few chickens,
goats,
and sheep would still be left. We would not be able spare any grain or
water for cattle.
Now this sounds like a grossly simplified estimate,
but when I refined it for different crops, growing season, water,
fertilizer
use, etc., the number didn't change very much. The amount of arable
land
and yield per acre made the most significant changes, both of which
cannot
change very much and we are losing land every day to our cars, homes,
etc.
Except for rice all other crops and animals decreased the number of
people
that could be fed. We don't have much to work with, plus the food fish
population is in dire straits, only three species are holding their
own.
I have seen sleepy towns like Lansing and Colorado
Spring grow to over 300,000. I have watched the farm land around
Detroit,
Chicago, and Los Angeles disappear, I have flown over them many times.
The wilderness shore line of Michigan's lower peninsula is almost gone.
The cherry orchards of Traverse City have been relocated to make room
for
houses, etc.
I have seen the population of our country grow from
151 million in 1950 to over 330 million in 2000 and the world
population
grow from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 4 billion in 1980 to 5.5 in 2000 to
and
6.6 in the fall of 2003.
So I ask, how can I be optimistic? People are not
paying attention to what is happening to our environment. The media and
the politicians are in never never land. Even the scientific community
is low keyed.
So what can I do? I'm attacking what I think is
the largest impediment to change, that is, our false assumption that we
are the chosen ones, we don't have to change, the world was created for
us, the world has to change for us. This false assumption creates an
attitude
that permeates all our thinking and activity. Look at what we are
doing,
we are behaving as if tomorrow will be the same as today, it's business
as usual.
Well, wake up people, the world is changing and
it is changing faster than most predictions. The Yellow and Rio Grande
rivers have stop flowing in some parts for some period of time. A
quarter
of the arctic ice sheet has melted. The ice shelves around Antarctica
are
disappearing. Glaciers around the world are disappearing. The air and
ocean
temperatures are rising. So is the carbon dioxide level of each. Water
tables are dropping and the battle over water rights is getting more
heated,
etc.
If we have a major drought or some other natural
disaster, how many people do you think will be coming across our
borders.
The disaster doesn't have to occur in our country, we live in a global
community. Not to help our neighbors would invite world wide epidemics.
We must help our neighbors so we will not be flooded with people we
can't
feed.
We will need all the oil and natural gas we have
to make fertilizer, pump water, and transport our food. We must slow
down
the world population growth and hydrocarbon consumption so as to put
off
the day of reckoning as far into the future as we can, so our
technology
can catch up with our population.
If we don't do it soon, it will be too late, the
population meteor will hit us.
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The problem of literalness was made very clear to
me during discussions in my advanced German class. Knowledge of the
German
language was a requirement for all chemistry majors because much of the
chemical literature was written in German at that time and to
understand
all the details of an experiment it is necessary to read the original
documents
describing the experiment or to have someone translate the documents
for
you.
Now there is a danger if someone does the
translation
for you, in every language some words and phrases can not be
translated,
there are no equivalent words available in your language; therefore the
translator must choose from the words available, those words in his
judgment
that come the closest to the meaning of the other language. Unless you
do the translation yourself how do you know the translator used good
judgment,
how do you know the translator didn't miss one or more innuendoes or
connotations.
You don't, you can't, it's impossible to know.
This leads to the primary error of a literalist.
By definition a literalist interprets each word in isolation, out of
context,
which means the meaning of all connotations, idioms, metaphors,
hyperbole,
allegory, etc., are ignored.
Many foreign students were in my advanced class,
they were being taught German in English. Many times our professor, who
was fluent in seven languages and could think in three, would explain
the
German to a student in his native language.
For me it was almost a mystical experience to listen
to three languages being spoken and watching the face of the student as
an understanding took place and say, 'Oh'. Almost always the 'oh' would
be followed by a lively and joyful discussion. In order to bring the
class
back to the lesson, if the discussion didn't end quickly, our professor
would end the discussion with, 'Until you can think in a language
without
translating, you can never completely understand the message.'
Now I ask you, how can you accept a literal
translation
of the bible? I can't because I know the translators have made
mistakes,
many of them, and some of them have been important to the true
understanding
of the message. Why do you think there are so many different versions
of
the bible? Because the translators can't agree.
Let me remind you of a change made recently. Do
you remember, 'Faith, hope, and charity ...' it was changed to 'Faith,
hope, and love ...'
Now let's compound the problem. If we have several
documents, all written about the same time but differing, how do we
know
which one is correct?
Also, we can learn the ancient languages and we
can read the ancient documents and translate for ourselves, but how can
we check the original translation, the person who received the message
from God. How do we know they passed on the correct and complete
message?
Now let's consider the worst error of all, the ERROR
OF ALLNESS. A literalist is more apt to make this error than a non
literalist
because a literalist examines every verbal construct in isolation, out
of context, and rush to judgment, a conclusion. It is this bull headed
rush to judgment that leads to making the wrong assumptions.
For example, 'Go forth, be fruitful and multiply'.
That's ALL there is to the message and because the statement does not
contain
any delimiters they assume we are to multiply indefinitely and
indiscriminately
and any other assumption THEY choose.
But if we defer judgment and include many other
statements about being a good steward, we can come to a much more
accurate
assumption and closer to the truth, that is, being finite and living on
a finite planet, we must limit our population to some finite number
because
if we don't we will bring about a catastrophe that will prevent us from
being fruitful and thereby not being good stewards.
Remember, when we read or hear a sentence the
information
we gain is always more because we filter the sentence through our
history.
The previous sentence is a simple explanation of what is happening, now
let me give you a more general explanation. When a system analyzes data
to create information, the system analyzes all the coordinates of the
data
as well; therefore, the information will always contain assumptions,
innuendoes,
and connotations not in the data.
To avoid making assumptions, never analyze a
statement
out of context unless it contains a delimiter for every aspect of the
statement.
If not then include the number of context statements that will supply
the
delimiters for the statement and all of the context statements.
Now, add the fact that except for the letters, no
document was written sooner than thirty years after the event. Do you
trust
your own memory that long? Why do you think Jesus preached for the
spirit
and against the letter of the law. It should be obvious, we can't know
the letter, it's impossible, we're not God.
From the definition of a system and its
corollaries,
a system is said to be successful if it attains a goal; therefore, the
only required attribute of an evolved system is that it be effective.
In
other words it must be able to survive. It may have other attributes,
such
as, efficient, equal, perfect, fair, honest, beauty, true, logical,
etc.,
but they are not required.
Also, remember that all of our systems of rules
are evolved systems, such as, our system of laws, our economic system,
our ethics, our morals, etc. We have applied the attributes of truth,
honesty,
logical, true, etc., because we have learned that if the systems
aren't,
conflict between individuals will arise. (Please note, learning,
language,
and knowledge are evolved systems, but are not a part of this
discussion.
Learning is also recursive.)
We have struggled through the ages to determine
if our systems are fair, logical, consistent, etc., but because our
systems
are evolved systems, we don't know how the rules came about and as a
result
we are incapable of determining if our systems meet our desired
attributes.
Therefore I don't understand how any individual, even one having
minimal
knowledge, could examine our world, our bodies, our brains and claim
that
we were created in God's image or that all of the other ancient
statements
are true.
I'm not really anti religion, I'm anti stupidity.
We are being stupid when with a little effort we could have done
better,
much better or with a little effort we could have known better, we
ignored
knowledge because we were too lazy to obtain it or we intentionally
ignored
knowledge because it was counter to what we want to believe.
From the scientific literature, I'm coming to the
realization that we have not evolved far enough yet, our psyche needs a
religion. Prayer, meditation, and spiritual endeavors enhance our
immune
system and increase our life span. What I would like is a new religion.
Let me return to my German professor's statement,
what I wrote is not his exact words, I can't remember his exact words,
he spoke in German, but I can remember his message.
We must eliminate exactitude and the bull headed
rush to judgment from our thought, we are not listening to the message.
Until we eliminate the idea that we can know exactly what we are
supposed
to be doing, we know exactly the right way, we know our way is the only
way; our very survival is in jeopardy, we will tear our society apart
arguing
over trivialities, over stupidity.
God didn't call us to be stupid, God called us to
be faithful to the spirit of the message.
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Here are my suggestions for what we should do.
First,
energy. You have heard all the usual things. Insulate, weather strip,
heat
at 68, air conditioning at 74, recycle, car pool, use solar, wind, etc.
Now comes the difficult part, we must give up part
of our life style. We must spend money and lose jobs. Yes, we must give
up the car and the pick up truck or at least the gas guzzlers we now
drive.
Drive the most fuel efficient vehicle when ever you drive, combine
trips,
never idle your engine, except at stop signs. When you know you will
have
to wait at a traffic light or stop sign, coast into it, it will not
cost
any time, but it will save a small amount of fuel. Don't travel during
peak traffic hours.
If your mail is delivered daily use the mail not
one of the express services. Buy groceries in quantity so you can avoid
making extra trips to the store. Don't buy things you don't need,
especially
things that are fuel expensive to transport like bottled water, pop,
etc.
Buy dried foods, cereals, beans, rice, etc., in other words don't
transport
water. Be careful about concentrates, sometimes they use more energy
than
transporting water.
At this point I want to make sure you realize that
I didn't say, "Stop using your vehicle." What we need to do is to
reduce
the use of our vehicles and drive more efficiently. Reduce and be more
efficient can be applied to all our energy consuming activities.
We will have to give up motorcycles, ATV's,
personnel
water craft, snowmobiles, and power boats for pleasure and recreation.
We will have to use TV and the internet instead of attending public
functions,
such as, ball games, movies, races, meetings, etc., unless we can walk
or ride a bike. Even public transportation will have to be limited, to
and from work or for food, medicine, etc. We will have to down size our
homes and other buildings. Reduce our lighting. Eat less beef, yes, it
is the largest polluter of the foods.
All of the above will be hard to do and take time.
We should accelerate the pace by placing tax penalties on all energy
consuming
activities and tax incentives on all energy saving activities,
including
recycling. I don't understand why the politicians think we should make
money on recycling.
Put a revenue tax on all oil at ten cents per
gallon,
one cent per kwatt-hr for all electric usage above 400 kwatts-hr per
month
and two cents on all usage above 800. Five cents per ccf of natural gas
above 1000 per year and ten cents above 2000. Make the landlord pay the
penalty for energy used in buildings. Give tax incentives for wind,
solar,
etc.
No exemptions, not even for government agencies,
everyone must pay the penalties, bureaucracies are budget driven, the
penalties
need to be seen on their budgets. I have heard people say we must make
the penalties so as not to hurt the poor. All and every inflation hurts
the poor, directly or indirectly, it can not be avoided, so why create
unneeded rules or bureaucracies, use the ones we have.
I recommend we start slow so we don't shock our
economy and so we have time to adjust, then we should increase the
penalties
and incentives on a set schedule so everyone can plan and act
accordingly.
Our society is organized around the automobile.
I recommend that everyone keep track of all car expenses and calculate
an average cost per mile. Add to it the purchase price of the vehicle
divided
by the number of miles you expect to drive the car. Then record the
number
of miles you drive to all your usual destinations and calculate a cost
per round trip.
Now you can avoid one of the most common mistakes
we make in our country. We make frequent trips to save pennies and
waste
dollars driving to save them. Next time you are about to drive to save
money on a purchase, subtract the cost of making the trip from your
estimate
of how much you will save.
I have seen people spend two or more dollars on
car expenses to save fifty cents or less on a purchase. Many times you
can save money by paying a higher price by purchasing closer to home
and
driving a shorter distance.
A radical change I would like to make, is to change
our calendar. Make every month thirty days, six day per week, with
December
having six weeks except during skip year when the last week would be
dropped
to bring our calendar back into agreement with the vernal equinox.
The advantages of this change would be multiple:
many more work schedules could be mapped on our work week allowing much
more efficient use of the work force, our buildings, and our factories.
Our income would be reduced, we would work less and play more and I
know
most people would enjoy more weekends. If we would be willing to have
even
smaller incomes by working less hours per week, we could employ more
people
and reduce transportation.
I know the biggest objection, a bull headed rush
to judgment. Do you really think God would object to us going to church
more frequently, every sixth day, and more often, 61 times instead of
52
per year, I don't think so. For more on this subject read my comment on
'Literalness'.
It's this bull headed rush to judgment, a
conclusion,
that I fought with for more than twenty years of my working life, so
when
I retired I never missed my work and I loved my work, I like to
analyze,
to solve problems, and to implement solutions. I can't remember a day
that
someone didn't say, "You can't do that because...", they rushed
to
judgment before they evaluated.
Can you believe this, our marketing department
statistician,
asked me for help. Each month, using a desk calculator, he estimated
sales
by salesman, by product, by month for the next year based upon the last
five years of sales history, an excellent task for a computer, many
repetitive
calculations on data all ready available to the computer. I wrote a
small
program and a whole month of work was done in two minutes. "You can't
do
that." "Why?" "Because I won't have anything to do."
I will guarantee that if you rush to judgment you
will never change. Next to ridicule, it is the most powerful deterrent
to critical thinking, your brain will shut down and you will not be
able
to create any new solutions, no new ideas.
As long as I'm digressing let me add: there are
three basic ways to make a change. The way most people like, is like
the
Japanese, get a consensus and then implement the change. But the
Japanese
have been doing it for centuries, they are masters at it. It is a long,
slow, tedious way. Our country is too impatient, we won't wait that
long.
The second way is to shock people and when they recover, tell them what
they have to do. This way is quite fast, but it leaves everyone
uncooperative
and with a bad feeling. The third way is to make the change and never
tell
anyone. Very few people will notice and the rest will think it has
always
been done the new way.
I used the last way every chance I could; however,
those chances were few and far between and I don't see how we could
possibly
use it for the problem that's coming. We will have to use a combination
of the first two.
Another obstacle that has to be over come is that
most of the rules we follow are arbitrary, but most people think they
are
written in stone. A solution can not be implemented if people will not
realize that we can change the rules, at least the ones we created.
What I'm trying to do is to make changes as fast
as possible without disrupting our economy, that's why the tax
penalties
and incentives should be increased slowly, so our economy has time to
adjust.
If our economy crashes it won't be pretty and it will not help us reach
our goal.
Second, our population problem. People equal
pollution.
We should change our tax laws to allow only two dependent deductions
for
children, allow all adopted children to be claimed as dependents.
Change
all social programs that aid children to be limited to two children,
again
exempting adopted children. In other words, do not give any tax
deductions
or welfare assistance that would encourage more than two children per
woman.
Sorry, no breaks for second marriages.
Birth control pills should be free for any woman
who wants them. Vasectomies should be free for any man who has two
healthy
children and mandatory for all sex offenders, if for no other reason
than
to ensure that if there is a genetic cause it will not be transmitted
to
the next generation.
Abortion should not be used for birth control, but
again it should be mandatory for rape and incest for the same reason as
for sex offenders and it should be available for the health of a woman.
Tubal ligation should be free for any woman who has two healthy
children.
Sex education, parenting, and family planning should be a high school
requirement.
My definition of sex education is much broader than
most and I will not expand it here except to say, we need to eliminate
the male chauvinistic attitude that women are here for their
gratification.
One reason I appear to be anti religion is because all religions are
male
chauvinistic, at least to some degree, mainly because they were written
by men, and religions perpetuate male chauvinism.
Many women are male chauvinists. Until recently
I was puzzled by this, but if you notice that women favor young boys
and
men favor young girls, you will also notice the instinctive awareness
of
the importance of the opposite sex to the individual. Now many women
are
aware of this importance at the rational level, where as, most men are
not.
The hand that rocks the cradle will never rule the
world because that is not her priority, if it was she wouldn't be
rocking
the cradle. Besides, rocking the cradle, the nurture of our children,
is
the most important activity we can under take, ruling the world is
trivia,
an ego trip. A ruler is nothing more than the measure of the stupidity
of the kingdom. Now, to be the leader of the world rather than the
ruler,
that would be important.
Male chauvinists have a mental block and will not
be able to understand the full meaning of the following:
1. Women are the way they are so they will become
pregnant.
2. Men are the way they are so women will become
pregnant.
Our country should embark on a major assistance program
to any country that asks for help with population problems. Rather than
give money, I would rather give birth control pills, condoms, medical
training
and supplies, teacher training, etc. We should not withhold aid because
of ideological differences. We should do everything we can to improve
the
status of women, improve pre and post natal care. Improve child care.
Improve
educational systems, women must be educated.
In short, do everything we can to improve the life
expectancy of children so women will not feel the need to have more
than
two children. If we can reach the two children per woman goal it would
put our replacement rate below our loss rate and thereby slowly
reducing
our total population and our energy consumption and our pollution.
This is not an unrealistic goal. Many industrial
countries are already below the 2 per woman rate and South America has
made steady progress toward the goal. Africa, the middle East, and
India
are the only areas way above the goal. Our country would be way below
the
goal if it weren't for immigration, legal and illegal. So, you see
there
is hope.
Third, the most difficult task of all. We must
change
our ideology. Our ideology as evolved from that of our forefathers to
one
of more is better, bigger is better, more, more, more...bigger, bigger,
bigger...
We must realize that we are finite beings living
on a finite planet; therefore our population must be finite. I don't
know
what the number should be, but I'm guessing about 2 billion, a number
we
passed many years ago. We should move all people except those necessary
to extract strategic resources, from the tropics, out of the disease
zone
and get ready for the next ice age. We should only produce what is
needed,
we should only have what we need. We should use any excess for our next
big adventure, space.
Learning is and should be a life long occupation,
earning a living should be a minor avocation. Part of our time should
be
spent helping our society, we don't need things, we do need family,
friends,
and neighbors. We need social interaction. We need an exchange of
ideas.
Retiring to the lap of luxury, living a life of
idleness is a recipe for death. From what we have learned, we must stay
active or die, use it or lose it.
Let me explain my greatest fear. Most functions
in the biosphere do not follow a shallow linear curve, they follow an
exponential
or a stair step curve. Our science is not advanced enough to predict
where
we are on any stair step curve. We may be up against the rapid change
part
of the curve and not even know it and we will have little or no warning
that the change is about to take place. If we trigger a transition from
one step to another we will not be able to stop it. We can't flip a
switch
on the wall and start over. We must live or die on the new level.
Two such stair step curves are the current flow
of the deep polar current and the location of our climate zones. Both
of
which are a function of global warming. We are contributing to global
warming
so we can mitigate our contribution. Most people carry insurance on
their
lives, their homes, their cars, etc. Don't you think it prudent to
carry
insurance on our biosphere?
Let's bring our population and pollution under
control,
then let's learn how to build a better society, then let's go to the
stars.
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